A collaborative study by leading global energy institutions predicts that solar module efficiency could surpass 35% by 2050, driven by advancements in tandem structures. The research, published in Nature Energy, outlines a future where solar cell performance exceeds 36% while manufacturing costs are expected to be halved. Beyond efficiency gains, the industry is shifting toward longer-lasting hardware with lifespans exceeding 40 years. These developments are projected to bolster global manufacturing capacity to 3 TW, significantly reducing CO2 emission levels and land requirements for large-scale installations.
The findings emerged from the 4th Terawatt Workshop, an international summit involving experts from Germany’s Fraunhofer ISE, the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and Japan’s National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST). Their collective paper, titled “Historical and future learning for the new era of multi-terawatt photovoltaics,” analyzes how the industry will evolve as it enters a massive multi-terawatt scale over the next quarter-century.
Andreas Bett, director of Fraunhofer ISE, emphasized that higher efficiency is the primary driver for a sustainable energy transition. By reaching 35% efficiency for a solar module, the industry can significantly reduce the physical footprint of installations, saving both material resources and land. Bett noted that while prices for a solar panel are set to drop by half by 2050, the focus on performance remains the most critical factor for improving sustainability and lowering overall system costs.
The research highlights tandem architectures as the key to breaking current performance barriers. This involves integrating materials such as crystalline silicon (c-Si), cadmium telluride (CdTe), and copper, indium, gallium and diselenide (CIGS). Emerging perovskite-based technologies are also central to this evolution, though the study notes they require rigorous testing to manage degradation risks and ensure long-term reliability in diverse environments.
As global manufacturing capacity aims for the 3 TW milestone by mid-century, the focus is shifting toward circular economy principles, including resource management and recycling. The researchers expect a more diversified global supply chain to emerge, allowing new international players to enter the market and reduce geographic concentration.
The study concludes that current investments in manufacturing and research will yield significant dividends in job creation and economic growth. By prioritizing predictable energy output and extended hardware lifetimes, the industry is positioned to play a transformative role in reducing global pollution and addressing energy poverty through more affordable and efficient technology.