The *DNV Energy Transition Outlook China 2024* provides a comprehensive forecast of China’s energy transition through 2050, highlighting its critical role in global decarbonization efforts. China, with 18% of the world’s population and 26% of global primary energy consumption, is the largest consumer of coal (over 50% of global use) but also leads in renewable energy installation. The report projects a significant reduction in China’s energy-related CO₂ emissions, from one-third of the global total in the 1990s to one-fifth by 2050, achieving a 70% absolute reduction primarily through replacing coal with renewables and electrifying sectors like transport. Visible signs of this transition include clearer skies and the proliferation of electric vehicles in cities, reflecting a robust decarbonization push.
China’s energy transition is driven by a pursuit of energy independence, though only partially achieved, balanced with social and economic objectives. The central government sets ambitious policy goals, supported by provincial implementation, focusing on energy conservation, switching to domestic renewable sources, and developing nationally controlled technology supply chains. The power sector is a key driver, rapidly adopting renewables, while challenges remain in decarbonizing heavy industries. Technologies like carbon capture and storage (CCS) and direct air capture (DAC) are noted for their potential to mitigate emissions from fossil fuel-dependent sectors. The report, a cross-disciplinary effort by DNV, emphasizes China’s pivotal role in the global energy transition, supported by extensive research and collaboration with Chinese and international experts.