Germany has the potential to install up to 500 GW of agrivoltaic solar energy on suitable agricultural lands, according to a recent study by the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE). The study’s two scenarios reveal that this potential far surpasses the country’s solar PV expansion targets leading up to 2040. Scenario 1 assesses a maximum technical potential of 7,900 GW, while Scenario 2, which emphasizes environmentally responsible practices, estimates 5,600 GW. However, limited grid access remains a critical constraint despite abundant land availability for agrivoltaic developments.
The study by Fraunhofer ISE presents a comprehensive evaluation of Germany’s agrivoltaic potential by considering various suitable types of agricultural land, including permanent grassland, arable land, and permanent crops like fruits and vineyards. Study Author Salome Hauger highlights that the projections are based on geographical factors and regulatory frameworks.
Through the use of geographic information systems (GIS), the study outlines two scenarios to determine the potential for solar installations. Scenario 1 focuses purely on technical feasibility, estimating a maximum potential of 7,900 GW while excluding areas with legal restrictions. Conversely, Scenario 2 emphasizes environmentally conscious deployment, acknowledging protected lands and conservation areas, and sets its potential at 5,600 GW. In this scenario, factors such as solar radiation, proximity to grid connections, and compatibility of solar systems with permanent crops were taken into account, highlighting synergies like using PV modules as hail protection for stone fruits such as apples.
A key takeaway from the research is the impact of grid infrastructure on agrivoltaic development. Hauger pointed out that limited grid connection points hinder progress in many locations. The study also categorized soil types under Scenario 2, establishing five classes of suitability, from most to least favorable for agrivoltaic projects.
Additionally, the local-level agrivoltaic potential was assessed through GIS analysis, revealing significant opportunities in areas like Hamburg. For example, the study identified 620 hectares of permanent crops in the Altes Land area and substantial potential on greenhouse rooftops. Similar investigations in Ahrweiler and Breisgau-Hochschwarzwald indicated that agrivoltaic systems could cover 12% to 16% of local energy demand, thus mitigating land-use conflicts in agricultural regions.
This research provides a vital foundation for policymakers and stakeholders promoting the growth of renewable energy sources in line with climate objectives. Anna Heimsath, the head of the Modules and Power Plants Analysis Department at Fraunhofer ISE, emphasized the importance of these findings in supporting further development. Prior research from Fraunhofer ISE has also noted a beneficial relationship between solar energy production and agricultural practices, and the institute recently launched diveo, a new spin-off dedicated to advancing agrivoltaics.