As the solar industry entered 2025, module prices were expected to fall further. However, current market conditions suggest otherwise. Although module prices fell as low as $0.08/W in 2024, they are unlikely to fall to $0.04/W in the short term. One of the biggest reasons for this is the massive collapse in the silicon value chain, where polysilicon cell manufacturers, especially industry giants such as LONGi and Tongwei, have lost billions of dollars.
For the past two years, manufacturers have made huge losses by selling at ultra-low prices. Now they want to recoup those losses and regain control. The rise in polysilicon prices is directly pushing up cell and module prices. Manufacturers aim to regain a strong position in the market by making modules a strategic component again.
Market manipulation also plays a role in determining prices. Through production quotas and pricing strategies, producers are able to manipulate market prices in the way they want. While Chinese companies continue to dominate the global market, increasing trade restrictions in countries such as the US make procurement processes more complex. In 2025, the solar market is entering a more challenging period, especially for module buyers.