Solid-state batteries are often considered a revolutionary solution for electric vehicles due to their potential to significantly lower costs, reduce weight, and double range compared to traditional lithium-ion batteries. However, despite the high expectations and substantial investments from automakers and governments, challenges in technology development and manufacturing scale remain. Experts are divided on the timeline for solid-state battery adoption, with some predicting prototypes in the coming years but widespread use likely not occurring until the 2030s. The eventual success of these batteries could transform the EV market dramatically.
Solid-state batteries have been hailed as a game-changer for electric vehicles — always five years away, but never quite arriving. Solid-state champions say the technology, if perfected, would slash EV prices and weight, and maybe double range. Government subsidies wouldn’t be required to sell them. Buyers would be infatuated. The trouble is the technology remains on the drawing board. Some experts say a breakthrough is imminent. Others point to problems said to be intractable. Because the prize is so tempting – an EV that can match and beat internal combustion engine’s all-around utility – the world’s leading automakers and the Chinese state are investing massively. These next-generation batteries seek to use solid electrodes and a solid electrolyte, replacing the liquid or gel electrolytes found in conventional lithium-ion batteries. The consensus opinion is that success is one last heave away. You can exclude Donald Sadoway, Professor of Materials Chemistry at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, from the consensus. Sadoway, in an interview, said not only is the technology incomplete, the ability to produce at scale remains elusive. The current lithium-ion battery technology, which has moved on from nickel-based chemistry to lithium-iron phosphate (LFP), will have to suffice for a while yet, he says. LFP batteries are cheaper with lower energy density providing less but acceptable range than nickel-based batteries. Nickel batteries will still be needed for more expensive cars which require longer range.
Cambridge, England-based technology consultants IDTechEX’s vice president for research Dr. James Edmondson thinks progress is being made and points out solid-state batteries are not a single technology but encompass various strategies with the ultimate goal of removing the liquid electrolyte and replacing it with a solid one. Some solid-state batteries that already exist have small liquid components. Edmondson expects to see prototypes of truly solid-state batteries between now and 2028 with premium vehicles the first adopters late in the decade. “In terms of seeing them in larger production volume vehicles we wouldn’t expect that until the 2030s. Even by 2035, we are predicting just over 100GWH of capacity for solid-state batteries, compared with our prediction for the overall EV car market at around 3,800GWH in the same year,” he said in an email exchange.
Will they live up to the promise of half the price, half the weight and twice the power? “Solid state batteries will inherently start at a high cost due to their much less scaled manufacturing. Average cell cost for typical (lithium-ion) was around 80$/kWh in 2024, and we wouldn’t expect solid state to match this until the late 2020s. Half the price would be a long way off, and maybe not possible, especially as lithium-ion is still decreasing, you eventually run into a base bill of material costs,” Edmondson said. “Energy density for solid state certainly has the potential to be higher than the typical Li-ion. We would expect solid state cells to be able to achieve about 900Wh/L whereas the average high nickel NMC is around 400Wh/L,” he said. Packaging the cells is complicated. “Overall, solid state should still be able to achieve a significantly higher energy density, but it won’t be as straightforward as having cells that contain twice as much energy means a pack with twice as much energy,” Edmondson said.
This is premature though, according to MIT’s