Saudi Arabia achieved a historic milestone in its energy transition by installing approximately 7.8 GW of solar capacity last year, bringing its cumulative total to over 12.4 GW. Despite this record-breaking expansion, analysts from GlobalData suggest the Kingdom is currently behind the pace required to meet its ambitious Vision 2030 target of 130 GW of renewable energy. While solar has become the nation’s primary renewable source, experts emphasize that accelerating project approvals, upgrading grid infrastructure, and integrating large-scale storage are essential to bridging the gap and reaching long-term decarbonization goals by 2035.
The recent surge in activity represents the largest annual growth in the country’s history, with solar now accounting for the vast majority of Saudi Arabia’s 13 GW total renewable energy portfolio. According to GlobalData, the nation’s cumulative solar capacity jumped from 4,665 MW at the end of 2024 to an estimated 12,465 MW by the close of last year. Projections suggest that the Kingdom will add another 5.2 GW this year and 9.6 GW in 2027, potentially reaching a cumulative capacity of 27.3 GW by the end of next year.
While the growth is significant, the current trajectory suggests the 130 GW renewable energy target set in the Saudi Arabia Vision 2030 will likely be delayed until 2035. To stay on schedule for the original 2030 deadline, the country would need to commission more than 23 GW of new renewable projects every year. Current forecasts anticipate annual additions will stabilize between 12 GW and 14 GW from 2028 through 2035, eventually pushing the total solar capacity past the 100 GW mark by 2033.
Attaurrahman Ojindaram Saibasan, a power analyst at GlobalData, noted that the Kingdom must implement several strategic changes to accelerate this momentum. He recommended the establishment of a transparent, long-term solar build-out pipeline supported by standardized power purchase agreements (PPAs) and consistent auction cycles. Saibasan also highlighted the need for a “one-stop” administrative process to streamline land access and permitting, alongside clearer guidelines for grid interconnection and hosting capacity.
Technical infrastructure remains a critical hurdle for such a massive scale-up. Analysts point out that significant investments in grid flexibility and transmission are required to manage the influx of weather-dependent energy. This includes the procurement of large-scale PV-plus-storage systems to manage evening peak demand and minimize curtailment. Furthermore, expanding distributed solar through net billing for commercial sectors and utilizing green bonds or sukuk guarantees could mobilize the necessary low-cost financing to sustain growth.
The market is currently dominated by massive utility-scale developments. Last year, Riyadh-based ACWA Power brought 2.79 GW of new operational capacity online. Meanwhile, the government’s national renewable energy program continues to gain speed; the sixth round recently awarded 3 GW of solar capacity, including one project that achieved near-record-low electricity costs. The Saudi Power Procurement Company also recently secured five solar PPAs totaling 12 GW, which is considered the largest single-phase renewable energy procurement ever recorded globally.
Looking forward, the drivers of the Saudi solar market are expected to shift toward industrial decarbonization and electrification. The rise of green hydrogen production and green industrial products, supported by maturing corporate PPAs, will likely create additional demand. Research from the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center underscores the country’s vast potential, noting that even a massive 151.3 GW solar deployment would occupy only 0.16% of Saudi Arabia’s total land area.