The Global EV Outlook 2024, published by the International Energy Agency (IEA), projects robust growth in electric vehicle (EV) adoption, with electric car sales expected to reach around 17 million in 2024, accounting for over one in five cars sold globally. In 2023, nearly 14 million electric cars were sold, representing 18% of total car sales, with China, Europe, and the United States dominating 95% of sales. Emerging economies like Viet Nam and Thailand are seeing increased uptake, driven by policy support and affordable models, particularly from Chinese manufacturers, though global sales remain concentrated in major markets.
The report highlights that EV affordability is critical for mass adoption, with China leading in cost-competitive electric cars, while Europe and the United States face higher prices, particularly for larger models. Battery price declines, driven by falling metal costs and innovations like lithium-iron-phosphate batteries, are improving affordability, with price parity expected by 2030 in major markets outside China. Policy measures, such as subsidies and emissions standards, alongside significant investments in EV and battery manufacturing (nearly USD 500 billion from 2022-2023), are bolstering the transition, with global battery production capacity aligning with future demand projections.
By 2035, EVs are projected to displace 11-12 million barrels per day of oil under current and pledged policies, reducing greenhouse gas emissions by up to 2 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent annually. Electricity demand from EVs could reach 2,200-2,700 TWh by 2035, necessitating a sixfold increase in public charging infrastructure and careful grid planning. Lifecycle emissions of battery electric vehicles are already about half that of internal combustion engine vehicles, with further reductions expected as grids decarbonize, emphasizing the need for sustainable battery production and recycling to support the global shift to electric mobility.